What CBAM Actually Costs Steel Importers: Price Per Tonne, Certificates and the 2026–2034 Ramp
By Special Correspondent · SteelMath
Every tonne of steel entering the EU now carries a carbon charge. The mechanics are simple to state and easy to misjudge: importers surrender CBAM certificates priced from EU ETS auctions (€75.28/tCO₂e in Q2 2026, €75.36 in Q1), but only on the share of embedded emissions the phase-in factor makes chargeable, 2.5% in 2026, climbing to 100% by 2034. The result is a cost that feels trivial today and compounds into a major line item within a few years.
The price per tonne, worked out
Take hot-rolled coil at the default emissions intensity of 2.8 tCO₂e per tonne of steel. In 2026: 2.8 × 2.5% × €75.28 = roughly €5.3 per tonne of steel. The same cargo at the 2030 factor (48.5%) costs about €102/t, and at the 2034 factor (100%) about €211/t at a flat certificate price. Origin matters: verified actual emissions from an EAF route can cut the intensity to under 1 tCO₂e/t, and a carbon price already paid in the country of production is deductible. Our CBAM calculator runs your exact cargo, product, origin, tonnage, year and emissions basis, in seconds.
What a certificate actually costs
One certificate covers one tonne of CO₂e and is priced as the quarterly average of EU ETS auctions (weekly from 2027). Certificates go on sale 1 February 2027, retroactively covering 2026 imports; the first surrender deadline is 30 September 2027. The UK runs its own regime from 1 January 2027 at a planning rate of £55/tCO₂e with no phase-in. The full deadline and price history lives on our CBAM hub.
Why the small 2026 number is misleading
Three reasons. First, the factor ramps steeply: what costs €5/t today is on a published schedule toward forty times that. Second, default values are set from the worst emitters, importers who fail to obtain verified supplier data systematically overpay. Third, trade flows are already shifting as exporters reroute around a rising wall of trade measures, which changes which origins, and therefore which emission intensities, show up in your supply chain. Buyers pricing landed cost, from plate to coil, should be quoting CBAM-inclusive numbers for any EU-bound material from this year onward.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much does CBAM cost per tonne of steel in 2026?
At default HRC intensity (2.8 tCO₂e/t), the 2.5% phase-in factor and the Q2 2026 certificate price of €75.28, roughly €5.3 per tonne of steel. Cleaner routes and deductible home carbon prices reduce it.
What is the CBAM certificate price?
€75.28 per tonne of CO₂e for Q2 2026 (Q1 was €75.36). The price tracks quarterly EU ETS auction averages and moves to weekly pricing from 2027. Certificates go on sale 1 February 2027.
Is there a free CBAM calculator?
Yes. SteelMath's free CBAM cost calculator covers EU and UK regimes, five commodity groups, nine origins, default versus verified-actual emissions and the full 2026–2034 phase-in. Estimates only, certificate prices vary quarterly and figures are not tax or legal advice.
How much will CBAM cost by 2030 and 2034?
The same default HRC cargo rises to roughly €102 per tonne of steel at the 2030 factor (48.5%) and about €211/t at 100% in 2034, assuming a €75 certificate. Verified low-emission routes are the main lever against that curve.